CMP: ₹478.95
Coal India (CIL) posted secure June 2024 efficiency figures.
Manufacturing was up 8.8 per cent y-o-y whereas despatches rose by a mere 5.1 per cent y-o-y. In Q1-FY25, despatches to the ability sector grew 4 per cent y-o-y whereas offtake by the nonregulated sector (NRS) jumped a pointy 16 per cent y-o-y. Rake availability throughout Q1FY25 improved 10.3 per cent y-o-y at 367.2/day. Pit-head stock at end-June’24 was at 81.5 mt (up 40 per cent).
In our view, despatch to energy crops was decrease than anticipated owing to excessive shares (45 mt).
Whereas we count on the e-auction value in June’24 to have fallen additional, in view of upper despatches, common realisation continues to be anticipated to be forward of our Q1-FY25 estimate. We count on quantity supplied for e-auction to rise additional, notably from MCL/SECL as they’ve ample inventory.
CIL’s provides to the ability sector has ebbed resulting from ample shares at energy crops. Nonetheless, we imagine that increased provides to NRS on the again of CIL’s increased manufacturing and cozy pit-head stock are more likely to enhance the general realisation. To this point, each NRS quantity and value are anticipated to be higher than our estimates.
We retain our Add score on the inventory with an unchanged TP of ₹495 primarily based on 7.5x FY26E EPS.
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