India Meteorological Division (IMD) on Monday predicted chilly wave circumstances in central and a few elements of the north-west area this month and there could also be dense fog days over elements of north-west and east India over the following three days.
Briefing media on the climate outlook for January-March, IMD’s Director Normal Mrutynjay Mohapatra mentioned there could also be regular rainfall, probably serving to farmers to get higher yields of rabi crops.
El Nino is anticipated by means of Northern Hemisphere throughout winter of 2023-24 and a transition to ENSO-neutral is anticipated in April-June 2024, with a 60 per cent chance. “Most fashions point out El Nino circumstances are prone to weaken within the early a part of 2024,” he mentioned. Additional, many fashions point out Optimistic Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) circumstances are prone to weaken within the coming months, he mentioned.
2023 warmest 12 months on document
He mentioned 2023 was the second warmest 12 months since 1901, because the annual imply air temperature for the nation was 0.65 °C above regular. The warmest 12 months since 1901 was 2016 when the annual imply air temperature for the nation was 0.710 °C above regular.
Mohapatra mentioned south peninsular and north-east India may expertise hotter days as above regular month-to-month most temperatures have been anticipated to prevail over the area in January. However, different elements of the nation are anticipated to witness comparatively hotter mornings with central and north-western elements set to expertise cooler days. The climate workplace has forecast beneath regular month-to-month most temperatures over the area.
In keeping with IMD, dense to very dense fog over some elements of the plains of north-west India and east India, extending into elements of Bangladesh, are anticipated quickly for a number of days. Chilly days to extreme chilly circumstances are prone to proceed over some elements of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan throughout subsequent two days.
60% extra rainfall in Dec
Mohapatra mentioned the nation as an entire, acquired 60 per cent extra rains in December at 25.5 mm, towards the conventional of 15.9 mm for the month. The south peninsular area acquired 72.2 mm rainfall in December, which was 126 per cent extra than the conventional 32 mm for the month, he mentioned.
The rainfall was 191 per cent extra in Central India, which acquired 14.8 mm rains towards the conventional of 5.1 mm for December. However in main wheat rising north-west India, rainfall was 65 per cent deficit at 18.9 mm, he mentioned.
IMD mentioned the rainfall throughout January-March (JFM) 2024 over north India is most definitely to be regular, which is 86-114 per cent of the Lengthy Interval Common (LPA) of 184.3 mm. However, rainfall over the nation as an entire throughout JFM is most definitely to be above regular (>112 per cent of the LPA of 69.7 mm.
Mohapatra mentioned regular to above regular rainfall is probably going over most elements of the nation besides elements from excessive south peninsular India, excessive north-west and north-east India the place beneath regular rainfall is prone to happen.
A chilly wave is taken into account if the minimal temperature is lower than the tenth percentile of the each day climatological worth and the climatological each day minimal temperature is lower than 15°C. This situation ought to fulfill consecutively for 3 days to be thought-about as one chilly wave occasion.
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