India could contemplate permitting sugar export after December, to prioritise ethanol for now

Sugar mills, which predict a constructive choice on their demand to allow export of some amount of sugar subsequent season (October-September), could also be dissatisfied. There isn’t a such plan by the federal government till no less than December, 2024, official sources mentioned. The federal government in October 2023 issued a notification, proscribing sugar export for an indefinite interval, however the coverage allowed shipments with prior permission from the Meals Ministry.

The ministry expects that the opening inventory in 2024-25 season could also be 90 lakh tonnes (lt), which is 25 lt greater than home sugar requirement for 2 and a half months. “Even when the general manufacturing falls by 10 lt (to 310 lt), the following season’s exportable surplus (over and above buffer requirement) will nonetheless be larger than 15 lt,” an official supply mentioned.

Nonetheless, the federal government can also be conscious of prospects of injury to sugarcane crop resulting from heavy rains and floods, which was the case two years again in Bihar and jap Uttar Pradesh, an official mentioned, including “except such a likelihood is totally dominated out, which may occur solely after December, it’s tough to take an opportunity”. The coverage can’t be like permitting sugar export now and import after 5 months, officers mentioned justifying the cautious strategy.

Indian Sugar and Bio-Power Producers Affiliation (ISMA) in July had urged the Centre to allow export of sugar as opening inventory is estimated at 91 lt for 2024-25 season, after due consideration of home demand and provide as such a step would improve liquidity of sugar mills and allow well timed funds to cane farmers.

Output evaluation

The Meals Minister Pralhad Joshi had earlier mentioned that any choice on sugar export could be taken based mostly on the evaluation of subsequent season’s manufacturing. Sugarcane sowing has already been accomplished and the primary estimate of manufacturing of sugarcane is prone to be launched within the final week of September, following which the sugar manufacturing estimate for 2024-25 season can even be launched.

ISMA, the affiliation of personal sugar mills, has predicted a major sugar surplus of as much as 36 lt for the present season. It mentioned that the opening inventory of sugar was 56 lt as on October 1, 2023 and with an estimated manufacturing of about 321 lt in 2023-24 season, the opening inventory as on October 1 this yr could also be about 91 lt after factoring the excess.

Highlighting that the home consumption of sugar in present season seen at about 28.5 mt, ISMA mentioned it can lead to considerably larger surplus. This estimated surplus can probably result in extra prices for the millers on account of idle stock and carrying prices, it mentioned.

The federal government in final week of August, allowed sugar mills with distilleries to fabricate ethanol straight from sugarcane in addition to B Heavy molasses, lifting the earlier ban imposed in December 2023. Nonetheless, the Meals Ministry will periodically overview the diversion.