Indian wheat crop: Fingers crossed on above-normal temperature forecast in Feb-March

The wheat crop could come beneath menace from the predictions of upper temperatures earlier than harvest. A probable above-normal temperature in February-March will seemingly decrease the yield relying on the resistance capability of every selection and the precise improve from the traditional degree.

Preliminary knowledge counsel an increase within the most temperature from the traditional degree is probably going subsequent month in North India’s wheat-growing States of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, sources mentioned. Nonetheless, the India Meteorological Division (IMD) will problem the forecast for February after per week, whereby the main points concerning the anticipated improve from regular degree could also be talked about, the sources mentioned.

Nothing conclusive

At present, the very best most temperature in Punjab is 12.2 °C, in Haryana 18 °C and in Uttar Pradesh 22.6 °C. Whereas the typical most temperature in Punjab on Monday was 7.7 °C beneath regular, it was 5.3 °C lower than regular in Haryana and 5 °C to 9 °C decrease than common in western Uttar Pradesh, IMD knowledge present.

Agriculture scientists mentioned the precision degree of prediction of IMD’s temperature and rainfall is as much as 5 days and nothing could be concluded at this stage. “Any affect of upper temperature will rely on at which stage the crop is and to what extent the rise is. Moreover, as much as 3°C increased temperature for as much as 5 days is not going to have an effect even in March if the night time temperature stays cool,” mentioned Gyanendra Singh, Director of Karnal-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Analysis (IIWBR) beneath Indian Council of Agricultural Analysis (ICAR). It’s too early to take any view, he mentioned.

In 2022, an increase in temperature in February-March shrivelled the grain in Haryana, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh, which lowered the yield.

No affect on early sown

In accordance with Singh, the wheat crop that was planted in the course of the regular sowing window of as much as November 25 might even see “heading” developing in per week if there may be clear climate, in any other case, there might be 3-5 days of delay. At present, many components of north-west India are experiencing fog and fewer sunshine in the course of the day.

Stressing that the early sown crop is not going to have any affect even when there’s a rise in temperature in February, however a rise in March can adversely affect late-sown varieties, Singh mentioned the yield additionally will depend on the varieties as the realm beneath climate-resilient sorts of wheat has been rising yearly. The Agriculture Ministry estimates 60 per cent of wheat space has been coated this 12 months with such varieties.

Wheat acreage has reached at 340.08 lakh hectares (lh) as of January 19, in contrast with 337.5 lh within the year-ago interval. Uttar Pradesh has reported the sowing space of the important thing winter cereal at 102.29 lh in opposition to 97.46 lh year-ago, up by 5 per cent. The acreage in Punjab and Haryana is nearly at par with the year-ago interval.